Gamesmanship in Carbon Dioxide Removal
I stick by my position that limited demand is the only thing preventing growth in the durable Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) space in 2026.
Supply is not the problem. Operational maturity is available; Scientific maturity is sufficient; With a clear demand signal capital would become available; Credible standards are available, adhered to, audited, insured, and rated; And quick permitting is possible in jurisdictions around the world. Although problems and delays persist, the supply chain is ready.
My position on plenteous supply is a surprisingly controversial position to take. Unlike others, I say that lack of demand is the only reason for slow-growth in CDR. Why is it controversial? A few thoughts here.
The most important consideration is gamesmanship. In the tug-o-war between sellers and buyers, sellers rely on every tactic to make a sale in a reasonable timeframe, and to keep prices high. The impression of supply scarcity, now and in the coming few years, is a useful tool for convincing buyers they are missing out unless they act NOW.
As a supplier myself, I am very grateful my sales and marketing partners are taking the scarcity position. In the day-to-day tussle between buyers and sellers, scarcity helps me (theoretically) get a good price for my credits, within a reasonable time frame.
On the other hand, the scarcity argument may bear hidden costs. Since buyers are often not compelled to buy CDR, at least not yet, the communicated and perceived lack of supply may give buy side participants an excuse not to participate in CDR markets at all. Combined with political and social headwinds, it might just be easier for them to keep their heads down for now.
Maybe the scarcity argument is keeping buyers out of the market. A cursory overview of voluntary CDR markets shows that only a small handful of buyers take carbon removal seriously, and a larger smattering of buyers are barely dipping their toes in the water. In early 2026 it seems that only a very few are committed to “net zero.”
There are also, of course, a set of buyers that moved early, entering into offtake agreements with high-tech, high-cost, engineered approaches over the past several years. These solutions are slower to scale, and slow to present promised cost reductions. Said buyers may say to themselves a) I have already invested in CDR and I have already made my contribution to the world, and/or b) this particular kind of CDR is the only kind of CDR I believe in, and if I can’t have this kind I will sit on the sidelines. To these I say: The job is not done and we need your continued demand for many forms of CDR over the coming years.
Finally, many buyers seem happy to stay on the sidelines until carbon accounting rules, Article 6, board consensus, unit economics, risk management quantification, government regulation, and customer pressure come together in a magic confluence.
I’m telling you, that crystaline moment moment will not occur for decades. Waiting for that moment to do anything will kill our planet. In order to have an impact, you will need to make decisions to buy before the stars fully align. The question is how soon you get on the bandwagon. It will be painfully evident to our future selves and our posterity whether and when we act, or do not.